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#GoldmanDelays2027Cuts Goldman Kills the 2026 Rate Cut Story
Goldman Sachs just dropped its 2026 rate cut forecast entirely, pushing the final two cuts to June and December 2027, and bumping hike probability from 10% to 20%. The catalyst: May payrolls at 172K against an 85K estimate, April revised up to 179K, unemployment still at 4.3%. That labor market isn't cooling.
The Goldman thesis is direct: tariffs, elevated oil, and AI-driven energy demand keep core PCE above 3% through year-end. Rate relief is now 18 months out at minimum. CME markets are already there: 97% odds of no Fed change in June. Nobody's pricing cuts.
Gold got the clearest reaction: down ~3.5% post-NFP, below $4,320, wiping out all YTD gains in a session. That matters for crypto. BTC and gold have been running on similar macro logic this year, and if gold reprices for higher-for-longer, the inflation hedge narrative for BTC absorbs more pressure too.
My read: the obvious interpretation is bearish for risk assets short-term, and it's hard to argue against that. But Goldman's 2027 timeline isn't set in stone. One soft NFP in Q3 and this call gets walked back.
The more interesting question: does higher-for-longer accelerate capital rotation into crypto as a rate-independent asset class, or does macro compression just win?
Full breakdown here: Goldman Research note via Bloomberg.
What's your macro read heading into H2?
Share your thoughts in the comments 👇
$SPCX $BTC $NVDA

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