Posteo

The Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC minutes, released May 20, delivered a clear hawkish signal: if inflation stays elevated, a rate hike is back on the table. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh — expected to take the helm later this month — faces an immediate policy dilemma. Headline PCE has jumped to 3.5% YoY (up from 2.8% in February), driven largely by energy costs tied to the Iran war. Core PCE sits at 3.2%. Markets are now pricing better than a 1-in-3 chance of a hike before year-end, while Kalshi puts the odds at 47% before July 2027. For crypto, this matters. BTC is trading at ~$77,854, already under pressure as high Treasury yields sap risk appetite. ETH sits at ~$2,192, SOL at ~$86. A rate hike scenario pushes "higher for longer" — historically a headwind for speculative assets. That said, if the Iran situation de-escalates and energy prices cool, inflation could reverse quickly, making this a very data-dependent moment. If the Fed does hike, do you think BTC tests $70K again — or has the market already priced in the hawkish pivot? Just sharing my thoughts. Not financial advice. DYOR. #RateHikesBackOnTable